Why Conservation is the Only Answer

Expert oil Geologists state that we will have great shortages of oil and natural gas within 10 years. More optimistic experts say we will be experiencing shortages within 30 years. A good indicator is that only about 10 billion barrels of new oil are being found per year and the sizes of the discoveries are getting smaller and smaller. The percentage of imported oil will rise dramatically in the next 10 years. The typical depletion rate of oil wells all over the world is well known. World consumption is rapidly rising. There is no reason to believe that we can get the lion's share of the oil and gas as we are now because the whole world will be in fierce competition for what is left. At the present we are spending about 120 billion dollars for imported oil and our trade deficit is extremely high. If we have to spend 3 times that much for oil in the future it will break our back economically. Many more natural gas wells have been drilled but we are just keeping even with depletion rates while demand is increasing. Coal and nuclear may be useful for a longer time but neither can be expanded to replace oil. Nuclear ores are insufficient to last for long. It would 1200 new nuclear plants to replace fossil fuels and it still would not work. Nuclear power plants have a limited lifetime. Coal takes enormous amounts of oil to mine, can’t easily be converted to liquid fuels and causes Global Warming.

Global Warming may change weather patterns in many unpredictable ways. Windstorms, floods, droughts, reduction in rainfall, and expansions of deserts will cause much property damage and reduction of agricultural land, thus causing famines. There are predictions of a rise in sea level that would flood many nations out completely. It would also inundate valuable parts of the USA. There have been predictions that Global Warming could become regenerative because of release of methane from tundra. This would cause a rapid acceleration of all effects and a huge temperature rise.

There are several mechanisms of Global warming that could trigger an ice age that would wipe out half the Earth's population. One of these mechanisms would be a change in the Gulf Stream. Another would be the breaking of an ice plug through melting that would flood the oceans with cold water. Another would be a large increase in water vapor on the Earth that would cause cooling. Geologists know that the Earth's climate has flip- flopped many times but do not know the trigger mechanisms. It has also been predicted that the Earth may grow so hot that it will lose its atmosphere. That would kill all life. The only good thing about Global Warming is that the conservation needed to stop it is also needed to save energy.

Conservation is the only tactic that provides for future generations. It stretches out the fossil fuels, and reduces the carbon in the atmosphere that causes Global Warming. Conservation coupled with a return to farming and manufacturing, a massive tree planting program, high energy taxes, apartment building, Cogeneration, Comanufacturing, and massive spending on alternate energy programs will all help to build a future for mankind. It will be essential to eliminate houses, live in apartments, and travel by train, foot or bicycle rather than by car or airplane.

The good side of this picture is that everyone will be working. This will stop a lot of social problems. Amusements that do not use energy, for example bicycling, playing cards, reading, sports, dancing, the Internet, gardening, nature walks, and playing musical instruments will replace many other activities.

Kermit Schlansker PE kssustain@provide.net >http://www.provide.net/~kssustain<

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